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2024-12-14 06:30:17

After the imperial court, the Milky Way started to accelerate again, and December was a month of harvest!Therefore, in the near future, everyone should continue to avoid the big ticket of institutional+foreign heavy positions and let them play by themselves. Let's make a small U-turn. Now there are enough market themes. Just focus on one or two core optimistic directions (technology and consumption), and don't switch frequently. Grasp the rhythm and the probability of making money is still very high.2. The CPI of the United States in November was in line with expectations, and the interest rate cut was stable!


Now the market pricing power is still in the hands of hot money+quantification+retail investors. Hot money pulls demon stocks, robots, AI and other themes every day, and it's fun to play; Quantifying the direction of pulling small-cap stocks and low-priced stocks every day also earns a lot of money. The institution is very embarrassed, and it is still in the negative cycle of locking up-redemption-selling to deal with redemption-continuing to lock up. Occasionally, one day, the institutions will explode and usher in a greater redemption. They can only continue to sell and bear the stigma of smashing the plate.However, to put it bluntly, most retail investors are positioned at the bottom of the stock market and are the weakest side in the short-term game. If you are not convinced, you can ask yourself: Are you sure that all the information you get is accurate first-hand information, not second-hand information that has been spread all over the world and it is difficult to tell the truth from the false? Are you sure you can really overcome human nature, be more ruthless than institutions and most retail investors, and strictly abide by trading discipline?In the past two months, domestic capital has flowed out by more than 1.5 trillion yuan. There are mainly three types of funds flowing out. First, some new investors who came in in October stopped playing. The second is that institutional funds run away, and the third is the reduction of industrial capital+size. In a word, institutions must be one of the forces of market smashing. This round of market is not that institutions don't believe in bull market, but that people don't believe in institutions. If they can't get money, they naturally have no market pricing power.


Before September, the market has always been a high dividend for defense and hedging, and the market is specially estimated. The incremental fund is the national team; Since the end of September, the market has been the mainstream theme, with low price and small ticket style. The incremental funds are new investors entering the market and old investors recharging.2. From September to December, MA5 continuously crossed the four moving averages of 15, 30, 60 and 120, which is the confirmation of the upward trend;The current position of the market is in the circle. Generally speaking, when the market starts to rise, it is always unconscious to most people, because many people are aware of it after seeing the facts. It used to be said that stock trading is "seven-point mentality, two-point technology and one-point luck". I think this statement is correct, but in A shares, it is more accurate to change the mentality to policy+mentality. Although the stock markets all over the world are policy markets, A shares are more obvious.

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